Week of 25–31 May 2026 · Issue no. 02

The Shot

Weekly coffee intelligence — specialty, origins, markets, and the business behind the cup.

Week of 25–31 May 2026 · Issue no. 02
The Shot No. 02
The CupSpecialty

World of Coffee Brussels is four weeks away — and the industry is mobilising

Attendee registration is open for World of Coffee Brussels, taking place 25–27 June at Brussels Expo — the first time the SCA's flagship European trade show has been held in Belgium. With 430+ exhibitors confirmed and the World Brewers Cup among the headline competitions, Brussels is the most significant European industry gathering of the year.

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Liverpool Coffee Festival returns for its third edition on 6–7 June

Featuring a Tasting Lab, Roasters' Village showcasing leading UK roasters, and expert-led tastings.

Perfect Daily Grind
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Roast Summit Portland 2026 takes place 28–29 May

Two days of education and peer exchange at the Daily Coffee News flagship event for roasters.

Daily Coffee News
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India's Third Wave Coffee in talks to raise up to US$100m

Potential valuation approaching $400–500m — a signal that emerging-market specialty chains are attracting serious late-stage capital.

World Coffee Portal
The HarvestOrigins & Science

Ethiopia is about to overtake Indonesia as the world's fourth-largest coffee producer

The USDA projects Ethiopia's 2026/27 harvest at 12.1 million bags — up 4.7% — while Indonesia falls 8% to 11.38 million bags. Four consecutive years of Ethiopian agronomic improvement versus robusta flowering disruptions in Sumatra and Java. For specialty buyers: more Ethiopian availability in 2027, tighter Indonesian supply widening differentials.

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Vietnam's 2025/26 production revised up to 31.7 million bags — 9.3% above last season

Exports reach 28.5m bags as shipments to Germany (+46%), the US (+37%), and Italy (+31%) surge. El Niño risk looms over 2026/27.

Comunicaffe International
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Uganda forecast to post a record 2026/27 harvest of 8.4 million bags

Robusta expansion and acreage growth to 595,000 hectares make Uganda one of the year's most underrated origin stories.

Perfect Daily Grind
The BoardMarkets
ICO composite (Apr avg)266.24 ¢/lb▼ 2.7% vs Mar
Arabica NY ICE (Jul)~274 ¢/lb▼ ~23% YTD
Robusta London ICE (Jul)~3,370 $/t▲ +1.7% Tue
US retail avg (Apr)$9.72/lb▲ 18.5% YoY

Arabica slid further on Friday while robusta rallied 1.7% after spotty rainfall in Vietnam's Central Highlands raised fresh crop concerns. The two grades are now trading on different supply narratives — arabica softness is harvest-driven, but robusta's floor is less settled than recent lows implied.

The ChainBusiness
1.
Andrea Illy opens the door to an IPO — carefully

Speaking at the Trento Economics Festival, illycaffè President Andrea Illy confirmed a listing is 'a possibility' with no timeline. He called 2025 a transition year of higher debt and lower profitability, and expects 2026 to be the year of recovery.

Comunicaffe International
2.
Community Coffee shipment theft lands in federal court

A shipment stolen in transit from New Orleans to Knoxville in May 2025 has triggered a federal lawsuit involving Zurich American Insurance — a reminder that supply chain theft is a real logistics risk for US roasters.

Daily Coffee News
The GrindOne to watch

Ethiopia is becoming the new safe haven for specialty buyers — and producers know it

Ethiopia targets US$3bn in export revenue for 2025/26, with 12.1 million bags projected for 2026/27 and 800,000 hectares of harvested area. The structural expansion is happening exactly when roasters are diversifying away from two-country dependency. Roasters who build direct relationships in Yirgacheffe, Guji, and Sidama now — before Brussels, before the 2027 crop — will be better positioned than those who wait for the differential to move.

Sources

Perfect Daily Grind · Comunicaffe International · Global Coffee Report · World Coffee Portal · Daily Coffee News · SCA News · Barchart · USDA FAS · Ecofin Agency