Week of 1-7 Jun 2026 · Issue no. 03

The Shot

Weekly coffee intelligence — specialty, origins, markets, and the business behind the cup.

1-7 Jun 2026 · Issue no. 03
The Shot No. 03
The CupSpecialty

Lisbon named host of World of Coffee Europe 2027 the first time Portugal holds the show

The SCA announced World of Coffee Europe will take place 17-19 June 2027 at the Lisbon Exhibition and Congress Centre the first time a World of Coffee event has been held in Portugal. The show hosts three World Championships: World Latte Art, Coffee in Good Spirits, and Cezve/Ibrik. SCA CEO Yannis Apostolopoulos cited Lisbon's position at the intersection of trade relationships fundamental to the value chain a reference to Portugal's historical ties with Brazil, Ethiopia, and Mozambique.

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Full 2027 World of Coffee global schedule confirmed across five cities

Dubai (January), New Orleans (April), Tokyo (April/May), Lisbon (June), Bogotá (September/October) the most geographically distributed edition of the series to date.

Daily Coffee News
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EUDR Information System to reopen in June 2026 with simplified group submission features

New functionality rolls out over the summer ahead of the 30 December application date a critical infrastructure milestone for EU operators.

SCA News / Hogan Lovells
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Arabica futures fall to 18-month low as USDA record Brazil forecast hits the market

71.9 million bags and a 9.5 million bag global surplus estimate from Rabobank arrived simultaneously mid-week European roasters with open forward positions had a volatile few days.

Comunicaffe International
The HarvestOrigins & Science

USDA confirms record Brazilian crop of 71.9 million bags the most consequential supply forecast of the year for European buyers

The USDA's FAS pegged Brazil's 2026/27 production at 71.9 million bags (+14.1%), with arabica at 47.5 million (+25%) ending five consecutive years of arabica underperformance. Exports forecast to surge 29.6% to 49.07 million bags. Private forecasters (Marex, Sucafina, StoneX) range up to 75.9 million, so the credible spread spans almost 10 million bags. El Niño risk over September October flowering remains the key downside.

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Brazil's exports forecast at a record 49.07 million bags major EU importers set to benefit

Germany, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and France are the EU's largest green coffee importers all positioned to access improved availability and softer differentials if the harvest delivers.

Comunicaffe International / USDA FAS
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EUDR Information System to reopen in June with new functionality ahead of December deadline

Further features roll out over the summer EU operators who have not yet begun due diligence testing should treat this as their starting gun.

Hogan Lovells
The BoardMarkets
Arabica NY ICE (Jul)~258 263 ¢/lb▼ 18-mo low
Robusta London ICE (Jul)~3,300 3,350 $/t▼ steady
ICO composite (Apr avg)266.24 ¢/lb▼ 2.7% vs Mar
EU retail avg (roasted, Apr)€7.80 9.20/kg▲ elevated

Arabica hit its lowest since November 2024 as the USDA's record Brazil forecast and Rabobank's 9.5 million bag surplus revision hit simultaneously. El Niño risk provides a floor 82% probability of onset by July but the harvest narrative is dominant. For European roasters: green price relief may be real, but EUDR compliance costs are arriving at the same time.

The ChainBusiness
1.
EUDR public consultation closes the clock is now formally running

The feedback period on the draft Delegated Act closed 1 June. The Commission will now notify Parliament and Council for a two-month scrutiny period before publication in the Official Journal. Instant coffee is added to scope; leather and cattle hides are removed. 30 December 2026 deadline confirmed no third delay.

Arendt / Baker McKenzie
2.
EUDR compliance costs projected to fall 75% but core obligations unchanged

The Commission's simplification package reduces costs through streamlined IT and group filings, not through any reduction in sourcing transparency requirements. Geolocation data, legality proof, and due diligence statements remain mandatory.

Baker McKenzie / Hogan Lovells
The GrindOne to watch

Six months to EUDR. Most European roasters are not ready.

The EUDR Information System reopens in June meaning the window to test and file due diligence statements is now measured in weeks. The roasters who will struggle most are not large multinationals with legal teams, but mid-sized independents across Italy, Germany, France, and Spain sourcing through traders rather than direct relationships. The 30 December deadline has survived two delays and a full simplification review. A third postponement is not coming.

Sources

Daily Coffee News · Global Coffee Report · SCA News · Comunicaffe International · USDA FAS · ADM Investor Services · Hogan Lovells · Baker McKenzie · Arendt · Chambers & Partners · Dcycle · Barchart